Guesses and Guts

Note to future self…

Today I heard someone say this awesome quote that really stuck with me:

Most of the world will make decisions by either guessing or using their gut. They will either be lucky or wrong.

I think that this quote speaks to the importance of making decisions based on data because anything else is an educated guess at best.

Making sure that we back our decisions with data is especially important when we tend to make decisions by guessing or when we don’t question our decisions because things seem to “just work”. This is 100x easier to say than to do but it’s important to keep in mind.

Decisions made by guessing are incredibly dangerous because if we get it right they give us a false sense of confidence. If we get it wrong, we don’t know exactly why things went wrong.


The takeaway in this case is straightforward. Use data to inform your decisions whenever possible and more importantly whenever you’re making an argument or a decision ask yourself “Do we have the data/evidence to back this or are we just making shit up”.

Now back to work…